Sunday, April 09, 2017

NBA Lottery and Tanking Solution

When teams "fighting" for the most ping-pong balls overtakes pride and the natural competitive desire for "W"s, it's time to do something. As analytics grabs a tighter rein on sports in general, the old "why would we ever not do everything we can to win" gives way to the more logical long-term thinking that teams are employing by resting and benching their veterans and better players. I don't fault teams for planning for the future but the fact that Lakers fans are upset when their team wins, regardless of standing, it isn't the best look.

Enter my solution for tanking. The Late-Season Inversion Table.

Currently, out of 1000 combinations, the teams in the lottery receive - in descending order - 250, 199, 156, 119, 88, 63, 43, 28, 17, 11, eight, seven, and six assigned combinations. Once a team is eliminated from playoff contention and with trades that contain protections, there is little reason besides aesthetics to put a competitive product on the floor. But what about young teams that are growing? Is this best for their growth? Isn't it better for the Lakers or the Nets... oops, never mind... to learn to win and not be punished for picking off teams with better records?

The first 62 games of the NBA season is 75.6% of the season. If you take the 1000 combinations and reduce the possibilities to 200, 140, 115, 95, 65, 45, 30, 20, 14, 10, seven, six, five, and four you have 756 combinations. For the last 20 games, you have 244 combinations up for grabs. The lottery teams with the BEST records in those 20 games receive 50 extra combinations then 36, 32, 28, 24, 20, 16, 12, nine, seven, four, three, two and one. No matter what happens, the team with the worst record over the first 62 games will still have the most combinations - even if they finish with the worst record, they receive 201 combinations and the next highest a team could have would be 190 (if the team with the second-worst record over the first 62 games finishes with the best record over the final 20).

With additional combinations available at each position, teams will want to win and improve their odds of a high draft pick instead of tanking to do so. For teams that are hopeless and can't seem to win regardless, do we really want to "reward" them by improving their odds? Doesn't make sense to me.

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Seven Steps to Fixing the Diamondbacks

On Monday, October 3, the Arizona Diamondbacks decided to completely turn tear out and light on fire the page on their latest major overhaul, relieving General Manager Dave Stewart and Manager Chip Hale of their duties while removing Tony La Russa from his post as Chief Baseball Officer (he is expected to be reassigned but remain with the organization). The newly-removed regime was put in place starting in May 2014, with the hire of La Russa, continued with the hire of Stewart and former vice-president of baseball operations De Jon Watson in September 2014 and completed in October of that year with the hiring of Hale. In their two seasons at the helm, the Diamondbacks went 148-176*.

La Russa and Stewart - and as a by-product, Hale - will be remembered for engineering some of the most widely-panned transactions in baseball during their time with the organization. While much has been written about these moves, the path to guiding the Diamondbacks to their first winning season since 2011 has yet to be charted. Here are some thoughts to possibly speed up the ardent task.

1) Move into the 21st Century with the new front office - One of the biggest criticisms of La Russa and Stewart was their reliance on outdated methods of player evaluation and roster construction. Despite occasional lip-service to the importance of analytics in interviews, the actions taken by the La Russa-led front office suggest they refused to accept the length to which the landscape has changed in the past five years. This group succeeded the tandem of Kevin Towers and Kirk Gibson who even La Russa noted were behind the times in THEIR acceptance of modern metrics.

2) Rebuild the farm system - Probably the most damning evidence of damage done by La Russa and co. was their dismantling of a once-promising farm system. Since the arrival of Stewart, the Diamondbacks have traded away former No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson (rated the #4 prospect in baseball per MLB.com in 2016), Touki Toussaint and Aaron Blair (both in the top 70 of MLB.com's 2015 rankings) among others. Their overall farm system ranking plummeted from the sixth-best in baseball to 22nd.

3) Move on from Yasmany Tomas - Immediately upon handing Tomas a 6-year, $68 million contract, scouts and analysts throughout baseball wondered what the Diamondbacks had in the 24-year-old Cuban. About two weeks into spring training, it became clear what they had - a Designated Hitter stuck in the National League. It almost seems laughable the amount of time they put into trying Tomas at third base. He isn't much better in the outfield and despite hitting 31 home runs in 2016, the rest of his game is so poor, he accumulated -0.4 wins above replacement bringing his two-year total to -1.7 WAR. Due to his power and relative youth, Tomas is much more valuable as a trade piece to an American League team in a hitter-friendly park than he is to the Diamondbacks and could bring back a decent return.

4) Improve the defense to improve the pitching - While much of the focus on the disappointing 2016 season centers around the two high-visibility acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller and the poor run prevention in general, every starting pitcher with 20 starts for the Diamondbacks had a FIP (fielding-independent ERA) between 0.25 and 1.28 higher than their ERA, with Miller having the largest separation. Removing Tomas' 35 fielding runs below average (Rtot on baseball-reference.com) from the equation would go a long way to helping, however, the rest of the team still fielded to an additional 15 runs below average. A full season from a healthy A.J. Pollock in 2017 will go a long way to improving the outfield defense without the need for a new player. Two of the leaders this season in fielding runs ABOVE average, by the way? Former Diamondbacks Ender Inciarte (+27) and Adam Eaton (+22).

5) Make an educated guess on Jean Segura's future - This is where things get tricky. Jean Segura came to the Diamondbacks over the winter from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for back-end starter Chase Anderson, Aaron Hill with two prospects traded in the deal also. He entered spring training in a battle for at-bats in the middle infield and never looked back. He exceeded expectations from day one and finished with a league-leading 203 hits and a slash line of .319/.368/.499. His 5.4 WAR led the team. Is this the case of a young player finally making adjustments, having a fresh start and reaching his potential? Or - is this a career-year fueled by a .353 BABIP and a career-high 8.5% HR/FB rate. The Diamondbacks still have Segura under club control for two seasons before reaching Free Agency so even if he comes back down to Earth in 2017, he is still a good value but then they aren't beating the market, so-to-speak. If the new management team decides this is the player Segura is now, they would be wise to lock him up to a team-friendly contract before he reaches Free Agency. If they feel he outperformed his future potential, they would be wise to see what they can get for him after such a fine season.

6) Cornerstones on the corners - While Paul Goldschmidt is considered one of the top all-around players in the game, Jake Lamb cemented himself this season as an upper-echelon everyday third baseman across the diamond before a late-season slump diminished his season-ending numbers. Despite the swoon, Lamb still finished with an .840 OPS. On defense, Lamb battled some issues this season but his track record suggests this was a product of the adjustment to being an everyday player or just a case of a defensive slump. The other issue where poor management led to a lack of growth was Lamb's regression against left-handed pitching. In the minors, Lamb displayed an ability to hit lefties at every level. Unfortunately, Hale decided to sit Lamb against most left-handed starters for the past two seasons and in the few opportunities he received, the rust was apparent with a .573 OPS over 202 plate-appearances. One of the things Lamb is lauded for by scouts is his approach, so there is hope that he can overcome the lack of reps from the past two seasons to reach his full potential.

7) IF Chip Hale didn't irreparably ruin Daniel Hudson, the Diamondbacks have their closer - The morning of June 21, Hudson woke up with a 1.61 ERA, a 24/9 K/BB ratio and had given up two home runs in 28 innings. That night, in Toronto, Hale decided it would be a good idea to send a pitcher with TWO Tommy John surgeries in his rear-view mirror out to the mound for a third consecutive night. Two nights later, Hudson began a stretch that lasted 32 days and included 15 appearances, 9.1 IP a 10/7 K/BB ratio and a 24.21 ERA. From August 5 through the end of the season, Hudson rebounded strong with 21.1 IP that featured a 24/6 K/BB ratio and a 1.66 ERA. Hale finished the season by pitching Hudson three consecutive days again, but one hopes his blatant carelessness doesn't cause Hudson harm down the road. If Hudson is managed properly, he has the makeup and ability to be an ideal high-leverage reliever.

*Baseball-reference was used for all stats and info in this article. 








Friday, September 11, 2015

#neverforget

In the first few days after the world changed, I remember being one. Black, white, brown, red. Pigmentation didn't matter. Jewish, Catholic, Protestant, Muslim, Atheist. Religion didn't matter. Republican, Democrat, Independent, Socialist. Political belief didn't matter.

We were all just one. I can't even say "Americans" because across the vast majority of the world there was such an outpouring of support and love that we as a nation hadn't experienced - or needed up until that point. We were One Nation. Indivisible. Seemingly across the world.

Since those first few days, in the last 14 years, we've fragmented. Instead of strengthening our resolve and finding our best through unspeakable tragedy, we've slowly turned on each other. We have run toward our like-minded and mirror-imaged selves and huddled, drawing the play that doesn't exist to come out on top. We've allowed our thought process to be "whatever category we defined ourselves as"... vs. the world. Instead of being empathetic, we are judgmental. Instead of trying to understand differences, we shame. When tragedy happens now, we group people together and make them the bad guy. It didn't happen before that day and it doesn't need to happen now.

It is so easy to hate and to judge and to allow our lack of understanding of a faith, of a race, of a belief to distort. When people with bad intentions band together under the guise of a religion, race representative or as a false prophet; they use that group as a shield or defense against our ability to single them out for what they are and their true intentions. We then make the mistake of not singling those people out. Instead, we lump in all the good people whose beliefs or appearance that small segment is falsely representing and make that whole group the enemy instead of pulling those people closer and acknowledging they are not the same. We run to our corner yet again and push further away. By doing this - we let the perpetrators of that day win. They wanted to tear us down. Looking back, we tore ourselves apart.

Be empathetic. Care. Love. Draw towards hidden similarities instead of repelling against obvious differences. Focus on the human aspect first. We can have differences without hate. We can have love without repercussion. We can do this. One Nation. One World. Indivisible. ‪#‎neverforget‬

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

The Problem is Us... And A Possible Solution

Roger Goodell is not the problem. Ray Rice isn't the problem. Greg Hardy and Ray McDonald are not the problems. The problem is us. You. Me. Woman or man; black, white or other.

We stand on our soapbox and demand change. We donate to domestic violence centers and Traumatic Brain Injury victims. We hashtag the crap out of every important, heart-wrenching catchphrase. We open ourselves up with our stories and share with strangers our struggles. Obviously, these are all helpful and meaningful steps, but they don't solve the problem. Every single person who does this - then turns on their Sunday Ticket package (or Thursday Night/Monday Night Football), sets their fantasy lineup, calls in their bets, purchases their jersey and their next home game ticket - is the problem.

When Donald Sterling's already-known-to-be-bigoted voice was heard spewing the vile many NBA people (and most residents who ever lived in his tenements) were already aware of, hundreds of season-ticket holders called the Clippers prepared to cancel their season tickets. Dozens of players league-wide and specifically on the Clippers openly discussed boycotting the games. The swift change did not occur because of social media or because of loud voices on your TV. Change occurred because millions of dollars were at risk. It is time to put the NFL's BILLIONS of dollars at risk. 

The NFL has many major problems right now. Many of them cannot be fixed easily, but one of the things that can be fixed is to make sure that if you are accused of domestic violence, you do not step on the field again unless you are FULLY exonerated. Not acquitted, not "charges dropped" by a terrified spouse. Exonerated. If you are found to be totally innocent, you can receive your back-pay & welcomed back on the field. If you are not, goodbye football. Just because you are one of the best in the world at something does not guarantee you the privilege of getting rich from that ability.

If you are incapable of controlling your emotions and your temper around the people you love NOW - how will you be able to do that with the inevitable CTE and other mind-altering brain injuries you suffer from years of football?

It will not be easy, it may not even be legal, but then again the NFL itself shouldn't be legal but has anti-trust and tax-free exemptions. What's one more rule that doesn't apply to the rest of America?


Wednesday, October 09, 2013

Kevin Towers has it all wrong

If the new market inefficiency is being the "toughest", most prideful organization even at the cost of putting opposing hitters on base - or worse, injuring other players and possibly getting your own players hurt - then the Arizona Diamondbacks and GM Kevin Towers may be onto something.

In a radio interview on Arizona's KTAR 620 on Tuesday, Oct 8, Towers took the stand that if his pitchers - who were already 7th in the Majors in HBP - don't start retaliating when his hitters - who were hit the 10th FEWEST times - get plunked, they will quickly find themselves in a new uniform. For some with "options", this means back to the minors where you can apparently be taught the Diamondbacks version of "an eye for an eye". For others, one can only assume they will be traded for .60 on the dollar like many of the players traded away from the Diamondbacks in the past few seasons.

It apparently doesn't stop just when a Diamondback gets hit. From his comments, Towers believes if you're having too much fun or being silly in your dugout, you should have a ball thrown at you at 90MPH+. Referring to a game vs. the Dodgers late in the season when Towers saw the NL West Champions enjoying themselves too much for his liking he stated, "Literally, if I would have had a carton of baseballs I would have fired them into the dugout from where I was sitting behind home plate." Now, I'm going to hope that is just a case of "literal" abuse, but even in hyperbole, WHO CARES? There are two much more reasonable solutions. 1. Beat them. Play better from the start and beat them. Then you won't care what they are doing in their dugout, I feel pretty confident about that. 2. Ignore them. If you feel they are acting undisciplined, unfocused or... *gasp* having too much fun playing a game, ignore them, focus on the task at hand and instead of suggesting you put MORE runners on base by hitting them, quietly come back and maybe win the game.

If another team adopts this same juvenile... technically, this should be categorized as infantile... way of thinking, will we just have a batter being hit every inning? When does it stop, when there's a brawl on the mound or in foul territory? That didn't work out well for the Diamondbacks this season when they tried to go that route. They were mocked across the country and generally lost a bit of respect among most baseball fans. Will it stop when a player loses playing time because of an injury suffered? When a season or career ends?

What do these 2012 D-backs have in common: Justin Upton, Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Ryan Roberts? All are players whose new 2013 teams made the playoffs. They contributed in varying degrees to their teams, obviously, but they were players who reportedly didn't fit with the gritty, gutty Diamondbacks being molded in the image of their manager Kirk Gibson and apparently the image Towers is now taking to the next level. They supposedly weren't gritty enough to be a part of a winning team, yet there they all were.

One of the oddest parts to me in this is that the Diamondbacks are one of the most forward-thinking and progressive organizations when it comes to the fan experience. They also have some of the most intelligent and rational players on twitter (Brandon McCarthy and Daniel Hudson immediately come to mind). Maybe it is time for Towers to join this millennium in his mindset and worry about acquiring players who will get on base and not put players on base instead of trying to find players who are willing to carelessly do the opposite under the guise of "protect(ing) one another".

Tuesday, August 06, 2013

Trying to fix a terrible top 10... the Greatest Singers list.

In 2008.... wait - let me start from the beginning - which, ironically, comes way past that point. Earlier this evening (see?), whilst drinking a good amount of wine (keep that in mind while you drink this and spot any grammatical errors or jumps in logic), I played a game where I tried to guess the top 10 on Rolling Stones' 100 Greatest Singers. What I didn't realize is the list had nothing to do with the quality of singer. It was more a "Most Iconic and Influential Artist" list. Not any less important, but - spoiler alert - if Freddie Mercury isn't on your top 10 greatest singers (#18 on the RS list), your list is... well, worthless.

I'm not an expert on the subject, but I did some time as a professional musician... ok, I guess technically that makes me an expert, but not in the critical sense. Although I was a pretty choppy guitarist, I feel pretty strongly that my vocal strengths are what allowed me to be paid on a regular basis. My (drunken) point is, I feel I can make a reasonable top 10 on the best singers in popular music. I'd love to hear your list or if you REALLY feel Bob Dylan is a top 10 singer of all-time, let me know. Maybe I can have my mind changed. This is not based on influence or frontman status or songwriting ability - just the best singers in my opinion. Thanks for reading - and enjoy.

#10: Christina Aguilera - The youngest in my list is also a victim of the era in which she was popular. Though the vocal gymnastics were sometimes a bit much - and what kept Mariah off this list - make no mistake, Aguilera has a sultry, smooth voice (Genie in a Bottle, Beautiful, multiple tracks from Back to Basics) that would stand out in any decade of popular music. Also, she is able to change gears and sing with some fire and growl (Dirrrty, Lady Marmalade) unlike many artists with that angelic a voice.

#9:  Steven PageI am placing Mr. Page this LOW because of my affinity for Barenaked Ladies. I'm worried that their being my favorite group may cloud my judgment. I will tell you that for most of my adulthood, I would place Page at Number Two on my personal list of favorite vocalists. His vocal range is broad, theatrical and more powerful live when in top form than any studio recording could show. With BNL, songs like Break Your Heart, Call & Answer, and What A Good Boy featured the depth and power that he brought. After departing the band in 2009, Indecision, Entourage and A Different Sort of Solitude are a few highlights, though I'm waiting for a solo effort that showcases the amazing vocal ability and passion I've seen since I fell in love with the old band 20 years ago. It's still there, as I saw Steven this spring and - even in a small venue with mediocre acoustics - he blew the audience away. I just hope he writes a song or two that does justice to one of the best pop voices of all time.

#8: Al Green - The Rev. He doesn't have the cache or the grand number of hits that some of his contemporaries had, but his voice could carry a tune, an album, a world if it needed to. We all know about Let's Stay Together, but take a few minutes and listen to it again. The rise from soulful storytelling throughout the first verse to sensual pleading toward the end of the track is some of the most passionate singing you can find and the basis for many an R&B song later in time.

#7: Art GarfunkelIt's odd to put a "second banana" in as one of the best singers of all time. After splitting for the 2nd (and most permanent) time in 1970, Garfunkel was unable to duplicate the success experienced with Paul Simon, while his erstwhile partner found both critical and commercial approval as a solo artist. This does not diminish the pure, haunting sound of Garfunkel's tenor voice. Whether in The Sound of Silence or The Boxer or one of their many other hits, Garfunkel's harmony stays with you in a way many voices fail to.

#6: Whitney Houston - A tragic ending and a less-than-graceful fall from public adoration does not diminish what Houston was during her prime. While I considered Mariah Carey for the top 10, the vocal gymnastics that almost got Aguilera booted were what did her in. I always consider Houston, Carey and Aguilera as a lineage of sorts, but Aguilera and Houston were able to shift into a higher gear that Carey never found in my opinion (this duet helping my argument). Houston's rendition of the National Anthem remains the most powerful and memorable. "The Voice" was also able to find a more sultry tone with songs like My Name is Not Susan, among others. Of everyone on my list, Houston is the one artist who I feel could vary as high as #1, but her massive talent did not produce a "Live" album or tour of epic magnitude and longevity that would have propelled her further up.

#5: Stevie Wonder - Very few artists have the catalog or the credentials of Little Stevie Wonder. A career that spans five decades with very few valleys and many peaks along the way. Another artist who was able to change gears and demonstrate vocal range not just in tone, but in emotion, Wonder crafted hits over many years with one of the most silky smooth voices in popular music. He tells a story with each lyric and can paint a tapestry with his bee-bopping and interludes. There is a nasal quality that has gotten more noticeable over the years, but for me it is not distracting (until recently) as much as it is a unique layer to his voice.

#4: Prince - One of the most under appreciated artists in modern music, Prince partially has only himself to blame by being a recluse and a mystery. He is, however, one of the most talented musicians we've ever been graced with. He manages to be underrated as both a guitarist and a vocalist, which is extremely hard to pull off. Maybe I place too much stock in songs like Darling Nikki and Sexy MF, but Prince could... well, fuck you with his voice and there was nothing you could - or want to - do about it.

#3: Marvin Gaye - Another tragic death, and much like Houston years later, a career that deserved a much better final act. Gaye sang one of the most influential songs ever released , "What's Going On", and due to the high political impact, it was only able to be released because of the vocal quality on that record (Gaye refused to record further material until it was released, but had it not been amazing, the record label would have just sued him for the next album). Gaye had one of the most soulful voices to ever be recorded and from "Heard it Through The Grapevine" up through "Let's Get it On", influenced millions of singers to come.

#2 Elvis Presley - Much of the mystery and eccentricity that clouded his life and his death masks the fact that this man was "The King" and deserved the crown. No singer before or since has been able to cross so many genres so successfully. Whether it was gospel, soul, country or Rock 'n' Roll, Presley was a master of them all. When Garth Brooks tried to crossover and be a rock star under a different name, failing miserably, it was a reminder that Presley could effortlessly pull off that feat multiple times, sometimes on the same album.

#1 Freddie Mercury - Proof of Mercury's vocal abilities is not best found in his amazing range (bass low F to soprano high F) nor his tonal qualities on such Queen staples as Somebody to Love or Don't Stop Me Now. It is best proven by the fact that Mercury recorded an Opera album in 1988 (with operatic soprano Montserrat Caballé) that spawned a top-10 (UK & others) single. This was no vanity project - it was the official anthem of the 1992 Barcelona (the album and song name) Olympic games. Mercury's voice lived on long after his death in movies, TV and radio airplay. The songs remain fresh (well, maybe not Radio Gaga...) and his voice is still one of the most haunting, mesmerizing in history.

Other singers I debated include: Frank Sinatra, Maxwell, Michael Jackson, James Taylor, Paul McCartney, Annie Lennox, Leann Rimes, Smokey Robinson, Lionel Richie, George Michael

Who do you think I missed? Who do you think I nailed? Let me know in the comments! 

Thursday, May 23, 2013

The Latter-day Rush to Judgment

On The Triangle blog of Grantland today, Jonah Keri examines the resurgence OR depending on your viewpoint, the continued excellence of David Ortiz. About 25% of the blog post discusses the accusations (most recently by the Boston Globe) and circumstantial evidence linking Ortiz to PEDs. Though Keri (one of my favorite baseball writers) correctly takes the Globe story to task for focusing on the gun that does not have any smoke emanating whatsoever (the 14-game small sample size vs. the previous two seasons that seemed... different), we must be reminded... that we asked for this.

In the wake of the PED scandal in Major League Baseball, one of the most frequently cried arguments and criticisms was the sport media's complicity during this time. We derided the writers and analysts who fawned over Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa and Nook Logan - ok, maybe not him so much - without question. We, the baseball-loving public that turned our own eyes, made The Fourth Estate the co-conspirator in the alleged smearing of our National Pastime. We demanded this not happen again and many people expressed betrayal and naivete mostly due to feeling duped after spending $120 on a shiny new Eric Gagne jersey.

Fast-forward a few years and Ortiz is putting up numbers that belong in the heart of the "steroids era". At his age and build, he should not be experiencing a statistical renaissance eerily similar to his original eye-opening rise to prominence in his age 26-29 seasons. Ortiz claims it is unfair for us to question the reasons for this and his defenders want to once again do their best impression of an ostrich, but they must be reminded that - right or wrong - this is what they wanted. For Ortiz, he only has his peers, and possibly himself, to thank.